Background rate estimations for thrombosis with thrombocytopaenia: challenges in evaluating rare safety signals following vaccination in real time during a pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: During COVID-19 vaccination programmes, new safety signals have emerged for vaccines, including extremely rare cases of thrombosis with thrombocytopaenia syndrome (TTS). Background event rates before and during the pandemic are essential for contextualisation of such infrequent events. In the literature, most studies do not report an overall TTS event rate. Rather, background rates are mainly reported for subtypes of thrombotic/thromboembolic diagnoses included in the TTS clinical definition mostly by anatomical location, with reported rates for TTS subtypes varying widely. The objective of this study was to report prepandemic TTS background event rates in the general population. METHODS: Prepandemic background TTS rates were generated via secondary data analysis using a cohort design in the IBM Truven MarketScan (now Merative MarketScan) US health insurance claims database, from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019. Two algorithms were applied: thrombocytopaenia occurring±7 days (algorithm 1) or occurring 1 day prior to ≤14 days after the thrombotic/thromboembolic event (algorithm 2). RESULTS: The study population derived from the MarketScan database analysis included approximately 9.8 million adults (aged ≥18 years; mean age 45 years, 52% females). Using this study population, prepandemic background TTS incidence was estimated as 9.8-11.1 per 100 000 person-years. Event rates were higher in males and increased with age. Similar patterns were observed with both algorithms. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents an estimate of aggregate prepandemic background TTS event rates including by type of thrombosis/thromboembolism and age group. The background event rates are dependent on the precision of capturing underlying TTS events in variable data sources, and the ability of electronic health records or insurance claims databases to reflect the TTS clinical definition. Differences between reported event rates demonstrate that estimating background event rates for rare, unprecedented safety events is methodologically challenging.

Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia after AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCov-19) vaccination: Case characteristics and associations.

BACKGROUND: Post-marketing surveillance for COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic identified an extremely rare thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) reported post-vaccination, requiring further characterisation to improve diagnosis and management. METHODS: We searched the AstraZeneca Global Safety Database (through April 26, 2021) for cases with co-reported thrombocytopenia and thrombosis (using standardised MedDRA queries/high-level terms) following AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19). Cases were adjudicated by experts as 'typical','possible', 'no' or 'unknown' according to available TTS criteria. Additional confirmatory datasets (May 20-June 20, October 1-December 28) were evaluated. FINDINGS: We identified 573 reports, including 273 (47.6 %) 'typical' and 171 (29.8 %) 'possible' TTS cases. Of these 444 cases, 275 (61.9 %) were female, median age was 50.0 years (IQR: 38.0-60.0). Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis was reported in 196 (44.1 %) cases, splanchnic venous thrombosis in 65 (14.6 %) and thromboses at multiple sites in 119 (26.8 %). Median time to onset was 12.0 days (IQR: 9.0-15.0). Comparison with a pre-pandemic reference population indicated higher rates of autoimmune disorders (13.8 %, 4.4 %), previous heparin therapy (7.4 %, 1.2 %), history of thrombosis (5.5 %, 1.4 %), and immune thrombocytopenia (6.1 %, 0.2 %). Fatality rate was 22.2 % (127/573) overall and 23.6 % (105/444) in 'typical'/'possible' TTS, which decreased from 39.0 % (60/154) in February/March to 15.5 % (45/290) in April. Overall patterns were similar in confirmatory datasets. CONCLUSIONS: The reporting rate of 'typical'/'possible' TTS post first-dose vaccination in this dataset is 7.5 per million vaccinated persons; few cases were reported after subsequent doses, including booster doses. Peak reporting coincided with media-driven attention. Medical history differences versus a reference population indicate potentially unidentified risk factors. The decreasing fatality rate correlates with increasing awareness and publication of diagnostic/treatment guidelines. Adjudication was hindered by unreported parameters, and an algorithm was developed to classify potential TTS cases; comprehensive reporting could help further improve definition and management of this extremely rare syndrome.